Global Health Impacts of Future Aviation Emissions Under Alternative Control Scenarios
نویسندگان
چکیده
There is strong evidence of an association between fine particulate matter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in aerodynamic diameter and adverse health outcomes. This study analyzes the global excess mortality attributable to the aviation sector in the present (2006) and in the future (three 2050 scenarios) using the integrated exposure response model that was also used in the 2010 Global Burden of Disease assessment. The PM2.5 concentrations for the present and future scenarios were calculated using aviation emission inventories developed by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center and a global chemistry-climate model. We found that while excess mortality due to the aviation sector emissions is greater in 2050 compared to 2006, improved fuel policies (technology and operations improvements yielding smaller increases in fuel burn compared to 2006, and conversion to fully sustainable fuels) in 2050 could lead to 72% fewer deaths for adults 25 years and older than a 2050 scenario with no fuel improvements. Among the four health outcomes examined, ischemic heart disease was the greatest cause of death. Our results suggest that implementation of improved fuel policies can have substantial human health benefits.
منابع مشابه
Flying into the future: aviation emissions scenarios to 2050.
This study describes the methodology and results for calculating future global aviation emissions of carbon dioxide and oxides of nitrogen from air traffic under four of the IPCC/SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) marker scenarios: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. In addition, a mitigation scenario has been calculated for the B1 scenario, requiring rapid ...
متن کاملبـررسی پتـانسیل اثـرات تغییر اقلیـم بر خشکسـالیهای آینـده کشـور با استفـاده از خروجی مـدلهای گـردش عمـومی جـو
A Study of the Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Future Droughts in Iran by Using the Global Circulation Models as Outputs Gholamreza Roshan Assistant Professor in climatology, Department of Geography, Golestan University, Gorgan, Iran Mohammad Saeed Najafi MSc Student in Climatology, Faculty of Geography, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran. Extended Abstract 1- Introductio...
متن کاملEmission metrics for quantifying regional climate impacts of aviation
This study examines the impacts of emissions from aviation in six source regions on global and regional temperatures. We consider the NOx-induced impacts on ozone and methane, aerosols and contrailcirrus formation and calculate the global and regional emission metrics global warming potential (GWP), global temperature change potential (GTP) and absolute regional temperature change potential (AR...
متن کاملمدلسازی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر انتشار دیاکسیدکربن خاک در مراتع خشک (جنوب ایران)
Introduction: Carbon stored in soils particularly in arid rangelands soils is the most significant carbon sink in terrestrial ecosystems. In arid rangelands, Soils have special places in both carbon sequestration and mitigate global warming. Therefore, any small change in the soil organic carbon (SOC) leads to a significant impact on the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Studies have shown t...
متن کاملUncertainty Investigation of Precipitation and Temperature Scenarios for the Sira Basin under Climate Change Impact
Results of assessment of the future climate change impacts is associated with some uncertainties. Considering the range of uncertainties increases reliability of the results. In this study, climate change impacts on daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature of Sira basin are assessed using LARS-WG model, for 2036-65 period. Accordingly, uncertainty of new emissions scenarios (RCP2.6،...
متن کامل